In Arianna Huffington's last book, Third World America: How Our Politicians are Abandoning the Middle Class and Betraying the American Dream , she talked about the Great Recession, the Great Bailout and the Great Cover-Up of financial crimes. When America allows third world tactics to seem into politics, you should question "official" stories.
On November 19, I attended a screening of Bloomberg News's documentary, Hank about former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's view of the September 2008 financial crisis. During the promised panel discussion prior to showing the film, Mayor Rahm Emanuel, President Obama's former White House Chief of Staff, took the center seat facing the audience, while Hank Paulson, the evening's honoree, and the Bloomberg host sat off to the side in a three-chair semicircle.
The mayor told the audience that Chicago crime was down. What a relief! We've had years of insufficient hiring and training for our over-worked, undermanned and underequipped Chicago police force. This was especially welcome news, since Chicago's credit rating has been suffering downgrade after credit downgrade. The only problem with the Mayor Emanuel's announcement is that I don't know anyone who believes it.
Statistical Cross-Check Suggests Mayor's "Lower Crime" Statistics Are Unreliable
Since our city leaders love to tout statistics to tell us crime is down, then let's see if their statistics stand up to a basic test from additional statistics.
On December 20, an off-duty officer was nearly the victim of an armed robbery until he turned the tables:
This happened in one of the more expensive neighborhoods in Chicago. The off-duty officer called for assistance, and he and the responding officers took the knife-wielder into custody without anyone being harmed.
Also on December 20, off-duty Cook County Sheriff's Investigator Cuauhtemoc Estrada, a former marine, was shot and killed after he tried to intervene in an armed robbery:
The criminals in both of these incidents were apparently not seeking out off-duty police officers, they were just engaging in Chicago's routine pervasive crime.
If crime statistics in Chicago are as low as Mayor Rahm Emanuel claims, this should be extremely unlikely. It's so unlikely that everyone should challenge the narrative about Chicago's crime being low or even being managed in any meaningful way.
So Unlikely You Have to Challenge the Veracity of Chicago's Crime Statistics
The population of Chicago is around 2.7 million. In 2011, murders were 431 or around 0.158 / 1,000. Robberies were 13,975 or 5.14/1,000. Out of 1,000 people, roughly 5.28 will be the victim of a robbery and/or murder and 994.7 will not. Let's round it, because we're talking about individuals. So to overstate it slightly, 6/1,000 will be victims of robbery and/or murder. (Rounding up biases this analysis a little in the mayor's favor, since I'm explaining how unlikely an event the off-duty police officer's incidents should be. But the mayor's stats are so suspect that it doesn't matter.)
Full time law enforcement staff was 12,799 of which 12,092 were officers, or 4.47 officers / 1,000 residents. I do not know what percent are off duty at any time, but obviously the number of off-duty officers is lower. Let's put the stats in Rahm's favor and make it more likely for an off-duty officer to be a victim, say 3 officers/1,000 residents are off-duty.
How likely is it that a person is both a victim AND an off-duty officer (assuming independence)?
Using the above statistics, it's not likely at all: (6/1000) * (3/1000) = 0.000018 or 0.0018 percent. In other words, there's only a 0.0018 percent, less than two thousandths of a percent probability of this occurring.
Now what is the probability of two off-duty officers being involved in a random robbery and/or murder crime incident? Much lower.
Now what is the probability of this happening to two off-duty officers on the same day? Even lower.
So what is going on here? Possibly criminals are targeting off-duty police officers (as has happened before), and that means the independence assumption is incorrect. But apparently that isn't what happened in the above two incidents. Even if you tell yourself that it happened in one of the above incidents, that still leaves the other.
These aren't the only recent crimes involving a potential off-duty officer as a victim. I haven't been keeping track, but I recall an incident in September of this year. A female off-duty officer shot and wounded an intruder and would-be robber:
The incidents strongly suggest Chicago's crime statistics aren't anywhere close to reality.
See also:
"How to Thwart the Assassins of the American Dream"
"Third World America: Fast Tracking to Anarchy"
"Third World America 2011: Forget Fast Tracking to Anarchy, We've Arrived"
Endnote: This post is based on my commentary: "Chicago Crime Statistics Seem a Fiction Story" at my non-business author web site. If you are a member of Goodreads and live in the United States, the United Kingdom, or Canada, you can enter to win any or all of the following books by clicking here and scrolling down the right hand rail of my business web site's blog or by clicking on the giveaway link below: Structured Finance & Collateralized Debt Obligations, 2nd edition - Autographed hardcover. Retails for $150 from publisher John Wiley & Sons. The New Robber Barons (trade paperback) Credit Derivatives & Synthetic Structures, 2nd edition - Autographed hardcover. Dear Mr. Buffett: What an Investor Learns 1,269 Miles from Wall Street - Autographed hardcover, or my thriller, Archangels: Rise of the Jesuits - Autographed copy. Contest ends January 27, 2014.
from Chicago - The Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/janet-tavakoli/crime-statistics-in-third_b_4512495.html?utm_hp_ref=chicago&ir=Chicago
via IFTTT
On November 19, I attended a screening of Bloomberg News's documentary, Hank about former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's view of the September 2008 financial crisis. During the promised panel discussion prior to showing the film, Mayor Rahm Emanuel, President Obama's former White House Chief of Staff, took the center seat facing the audience, while Hank Paulson, the evening's honoree, and the Bloomberg host sat off to the side in a three-chair semicircle.
The mayor told the audience that Chicago crime was down. What a relief! We've had years of insufficient hiring and training for our over-worked, undermanned and underequipped Chicago police force. This was especially welcome news, since Chicago's credit rating has been suffering downgrade after credit downgrade. The only problem with the Mayor Emanuel's announcement is that I don't know anyone who believes it.
Statistical Cross-Check Suggests Mayor's "Lower Crime" Statistics Are Unreliable
Since our city leaders love to tout statistics to tell us crime is down, then let's see if their statistics stand up to a basic test from additional statistics.
On December 20, an off-duty officer was nearly the victim of an armed robbery until he turned the tables:
A man was taken into custody after trying to rob an off-duty Chicago police officer at knifepoint early this morning, authorities said.
This happened in one of the more expensive neighborhoods in Chicago. The off-duty officer called for assistance, and he and the responding officers took the knife-wielder into custody without anyone being harmed.
Also on December 20, off-duty Cook County Sheriff's Investigator Cuauhtemoc Estrada, a former marine, was shot and killed after he tried to intervene in an armed robbery:
Estrada...was fatally shot Friday night protecting his daughter and her boyfriend from armed robbers outside a holiday party he was hosting at a Bellwood Veterans of Foreign Wars hall.
The criminals in both of these incidents were apparently not seeking out off-duty police officers, they were just engaging in Chicago's routine pervasive crime.
If crime statistics in Chicago are as low as Mayor Rahm Emanuel claims, this should be extremely unlikely. It's so unlikely that everyone should challenge the narrative about Chicago's crime being low or even being managed in any meaningful way.
So Unlikely You Have to Challenge the Veracity of Chicago's Crime Statistics
The population of Chicago is around 2.7 million. In 2011, murders were 431 or around 0.158 / 1,000. Robberies were 13,975 or 5.14/1,000. Out of 1,000 people, roughly 5.28 will be the victim of a robbery and/or murder and 994.7 will not. Let's round it, because we're talking about individuals. So to overstate it slightly, 6/1,000 will be victims of robbery and/or murder. (Rounding up biases this analysis a little in the mayor's favor, since I'm explaining how unlikely an event the off-duty police officer's incidents should be. But the mayor's stats are so suspect that it doesn't matter.)
Full time law enforcement staff was 12,799 of which 12,092 were officers, or 4.47 officers / 1,000 residents. I do not know what percent are off duty at any time, but obviously the number of off-duty officers is lower. Let's put the stats in Rahm's favor and make it more likely for an off-duty officer to be a victim, say 3 officers/1,000 residents are off-duty.
How likely is it that a person is both a victim AND an off-duty officer (assuming independence)?
Using the above statistics, it's not likely at all: (6/1000) * (3/1000) = 0.000018 or 0.0018 percent. In other words, there's only a 0.0018 percent, less than two thousandths of a percent probability of this occurring.
Now what is the probability of two off-duty officers being involved in a random robbery and/or murder crime incident? Much lower.
Now what is the probability of this happening to two off-duty officers on the same day? Even lower.
So what is going on here? Possibly criminals are targeting off-duty police officers (as has happened before), and that means the independence assumption is incorrect. But apparently that isn't what happened in the above two incidents. Even if you tell yourself that it happened in one of the above incidents, that still leaves the other.
These aren't the only recent crimes involving a potential off-duty officer as a victim. I haven't been keeping track, but I recall an incident in September of this year. A female off-duty officer shot and wounded an intruder and would-be robber:
The officer woke up this morning to a door bell...then heard noises coming from a downstairs bedroom. Police say the officer grabbed her gun and headed downstairs to find a teen rifling through her stuff.
"He turns around, lunges at her. At that point, she fires her weapon, fearing for her life," Camden says.
Neighbors say this is not the first time the officer's home was broken into.
The incidents strongly suggest Chicago's crime statistics aren't anywhere close to reality.
See also:
"How to Thwart the Assassins of the American Dream"
"Third World America: Fast Tracking to Anarchy"
"Third World America 2011: Forget Fast Tracking to Anarchy, We've Arrived"
Endnote: This post is based on my commentary: "Chicago Crime Statistics Seem a Fiction Story" at my non-business author web site. If you are a member of Goodreads and live in the United States, the United Kingdom, or Canada, you can enter to win any or all of the following books by clicking here and scrolling down the right hand rail of my business web site's blog or by clicking on the giveaway link below: Structured Finance & Collateralized Debt Obligations, 2nd edition - Autographed hardcover. Retails for $150 from publisher John Wiley & Sons. The New Robber Barons (trade paperback) Credit Derivatives & Synthetic Structures, 2nd edition - Autographed hardcover. Dear Mr. Buffett: What an Investor Learns 1,269 Miles from Wall Street - Autographed hardcover, or my thriller, Archangels: Rise of the Jesuits - Autographed copy. Contest ends January 27, 2014.
from Chicago - The Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/janet-tavakoli/crime-statistics-in-third_b_4512495.html?utm_hp_ref=chicago&ir=Chicago
via IFTTT
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