Report: Illinois Ended 2015 With a Shrinking Economy

While most states capped off last year with growing economies, Illinois was one of seven that likely had its economy shrink during the last quarter of 2015, according to an analysis of the latest employment data.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia identifies trends and summarizes economic conditions in each state by combining four indicators -- nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the Consumer Price Index -- into a single statistic called the state coincident index.

From the Philadelphia Fed on its state coincident index:

The trend for each state's index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state's index matches long-term growth in its GDP... The model and the input variables are consistent across the 50 states, so the state indexes are comparable to one another.

Here's a map that shows the percent change in the fourth quarter state coincident index over the previous quarter.

States colored green have economies that are growing; states shown in pink or red have economies that are shrinking. The darker the shade, the higher the growth or contraction in that state's economy.

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